Team Fortress 2 Unusual & Uncrating FAQ
Team Fortress 2 Unusual & Uncrating FAQ
Hello!
I haven't seen such thread so I decided to make one and answer some of the frequently asked questions about how unboxing works.
Q: What is the probability of finding an unusual while opening a crate?
A: The wiki states the probability is 1% but actual evidence has shown the the probability lies somewhere around 0.005 (0.5%) and 0.007 (0.7%). [Cite]
Q: If the probability of getting an unusual from a crate is 1%, does it mean I will get one if I open 100 crates?
A: Actually no. This is a common mistake made by many people regarding how statistics work. The chances of getting at least one unusual goes up if you have more crates and is calculated using the following formula (assuming that the probability is 1%): 1 - (1 - 0.01)^n with n being the crate count. So if you open 100 crates in row, the chances of getting at least one unusual out of them would be 63.39%. [Cite]
Q: Do old crates only give old unusual effects and new crates only give new unusual effects?
A: It is known that Robo Effects can only be obtained from RoboCrates and Holloween effects can only be obtained in during special events. But whether 1st generation effects (like flames) can only be obtained from old crates or not is debatable. Statistics show the people are unboxing newer crates and getting new effects more than old. Wiki says that any unusual effect can be obtained from any crate but the actual evidence shows that it might be wrong. Crates before Series #25 have a higher tendency to give older effects and crates after that new ones. [Cite #1] [Cite #2] [Cite #3]
Q: Can I get any unusual hat from any crate?
A: You can only get Robo Unusuals from RoboCrates but you can get all other unusual hats from any crate series. [Cite]
Q: Where can I check the price of an unusual hat?
A: You could check on backpack.tf or tf2pricecheck.net. However, most of the expert traders believe that unusual value isn't set in stone so you really can't find an absolute value of them in any website/chart but they might still give you an idea.
Q: What is the most expensive unusual hat and how many of them exist?
A: The most expensive unusual has is a Team Captain with Burning Flames effect which is worth well over 5400$ and currently only 5 of them (legit and clean) exist. [Cite]
Q: I've heard people calling some unusual hats "cancer", what does that term mean?
A: A cancer hat is a bad hat or a hat that has a very bad effect. Cancer unusual hats are hard to trade because not many people would be interested in them. They are also cheap. [Cite #1] [Cite #2]
Q: What are unusual effect/hat tiers?
A: Effect tiers is a common term among unusual trader. It means how good an effect is. There are four tiers: Low Tier, Medium Tier, High Tier, and God Tier but it's mostly personal. Same goes for hats themselves. It also largely depends on player's personal opinion. [Cite #1] [Cite #2] [Cite #3]
Q: What are "themed" unusual hats?
A: A themed unusual hat is a hat with a relevant effect that often adds to it's value. [Cite]
Q: If I craft two unusual hats, will the new hat be an unusual?
A: No! Any properties that a hat might have before crafting (excluding untradeable) will be totally lost upon crafting. If you craft an unusual hat, you will get a normal hat. [Cite]
Feel free to say if you think a question should be added.
Cheers!
source: steam forums (my steam forums account, this has been originally posted by myself)
I haven't seen such thread so I decided to make one and answer some of the frequently asked questions about how unboxing works.
Q: What is the probability of finding an unusual while opening a crate?
A: The wiki states the probability is 1% but actual evidence has shown the the probability lies somewhere around 0.005 (0.5%) and 0.007 (0.7%). [Cite]
Q: If the probability of getting an unusual from a crate is 1%, does it mean I will get one if I open 100 crates?
A: Actually no. This is a common mistake made by many people regarding how statistics work. The chances of getting at least one unusual goes up if you have more crates and is calculated using the following formula (assuming that the probability is 1%): 1 - (1 - 0.01)^n with n being the crate count. So if you open 100 crates in row, the chances of getting at least one unusual out of them would be 63.39%. [Cite]
Q: Do old crates only give old unusual effects and new crates only give new unusual effects?
A: It is known that Robo Effects can only be obtained from RoboCrates and Holloween effects can only be obtained in during special events. But whether 1st generation effects (like flames) can only be obtained from old crates or not is debatable. Statistics show the people are unboxing newer crates and getting new effects more than old. Wiki says that any unusual effect can be obtained from any crate but the actual evidence shows that it might be wrong. Crates before Series #25 have a higher tendency to give older effects and crates after that new ones. [Cite #1] [Cite #2] [Cite #3]
Q: Can I get any unusual hat from any crate?
A: You can only get Robo Unusuals from RoboCrates but you can get all other unusual hats from any crate series. [Cite]
Q: Where can I check the price of an unusual hat?
A: You could check on backpack.tf or tf2pricecheck.net. However, most of the expert traders believe that unusual value isn't set in stone so you really can't find an absolute value of them in any website/chart but they might still give you an idea.
Q: What is the most expensive unusual hat and how many of them exist?
A: The most expensive unusual has is a Team Captain with Burning Flames effect which is worth well over 5400$ and currently only 5 of them (legit and clean) exist. [Cite]
Q: I've heard people calling some unusual hats "cancer", what does that term mean?
A: A cancer hat is a bad hat or a hat that has a very bad effect. Cancer unusual hats are hard to trade because not many people would be interested in them. They are also cheap. [Cite #1] [Cite #2]
Q: What are unusual effect/hat tiers?
A: Effect tiers is a common term among unusual trader. It means how good an effect is. There are four tiers: Low Tier, Medium Tier, High Tier, and God Tier but it's mostly personal. Same goes for hats themselves. It also largely depends on player's personal opinion. [Cite #1] [Cite #2] [Cite #3]
Q: What are "themed" unusual hats?
A: A themed unusual hat is a hat with a relevant effect that often adds to it's value. [Cite]
Q: If I craft two unusual hats, will the new hat be an unusual?
A: No! Any properties that a hat might have before crafting (excluding untradeable) will be totally lost upon crafting. If you craft an unusual hat, you will get a normal hat. [Cite]
Feel free to say if you think a question should be added.
Cheers!
source: steam forums (my steam forums account, this has been originally posted by myself)
Burning TC ain't the most expensive, I sold my Maxes Severed Head with Burning Gabenoids and Orbiting Buds for $8,679. But yeah it wasn't documented.
Originally Posted by Kellyseveride
Burning TC ain't the most expensive, I sold my Maxes Severed Head with Burning Gabenoids and Orbiting Buds for $8,679. But yeah it wasn't documented.
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lol $8,679 for game hat? this only makes me think that this world its turning dumb! Its just a game nuts, (GAME) THAT'S IT. With $8k I get an almost brand new car + a girlfriend if i were single and I would still have money left to pay a dumb gamer $10 to kiss my ***. PPL get a life, a real one.
Haha, exactly @wut12345
I'm fairly certain he meant it as 8 dollars and the rest as cents.
Originally Posted by Gray
I'm fairly certain he meant it as 8 dollars and the rest as cents.
Decided to stick this 
If you need any editing done, contact me!
If you need any editing done, contact me!
Actually, the burning TC is not the most expensive hat. Its now the Burning Killer Exclusive which sold for 300 buds which is over $11,000
what is this do i am new do i get the hack or buy it
Originally Posted by joshseaford12
what is this do i am new do i get the hack or buy it
I fucking love your CS picture but GREAT Q&A 
My 11th unbox, an Unusual Geisha Boy with Orbiting Planets is worth ~$25 or 13 keys.
needs a upadate most expencive is burning killer exclusive.
